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19th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks

March 10, 2026

Authors

Michael A. Bean FSA, FCIA, FCAS, CERA

R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA

Sponsors

Society of Actuaries Research Institute

Casualty Actuarial Society

Summary

The 2026 Emerging Risk Survey highlights shifting priorities among insurance and financial services leaders, with artificial intelligence, financial volatility, and geopolitical shifts leading near- and long-term concerns. Findings reveal increasing technological risk dominance and evolving economic outlook expectations.

What are the top emerging risks for insurers and financial services firms in 2026? According to the 2026 Emerging Risk Survey by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the Casualty Actuarial Society, the most impactful near-term risks for insurers and financial services firms are financial volatility and geoeconomic shifts. Over a longer horizon, technological risks dominate, especially artificial intelligence adverse outcomes and cyber events.

The survey shows a shift from geopolitical and economic concerns in 2026 toward technology-driven risks three or more years out. AI-related risks rank highest long term, often in combination with cyber threats or financial instability.

Environmental risks, including extreme weather and long-term climate change, remain significant, particularly for property and casualty insurers. However, compared to prior years, climate risks are increasingly treated as embedded, managed risks rather than newly emerging threats.

Overall, the report highlights a structural transition: technology risk, especially AI, is now central to strategic planning in insurance and financial services.

Key Components:

1. Executive Summary, High-level findings, including:

  • Top near-term risks (2026)
  • Top longer-term risks (three+ years)
  • Differences by employer type (life, P&C, consulting)
  • Major trend shifts, especially toward technological risks

2. Survey Overview & Methodology

  • Who participated (C-suite leaders and broader professionals)
  • Survey structure and risk categories
  • Description of 17 specific risks across five categories
  • Explanation of combination-risk analysis

3. C-Suite Results, Detailed breakdown of:

  • Most impactful near-term risks
  • Most impactful longer-term risks
  • Differences by employer type
  • Migration between risk categories over time
  • Risk persistence vs. out-migration
  • Most impactful risk combinations

4. Longitudinal Trend Analysis (2022–2026)

  • Top five emerging risks over multiple years
  • Trends in climate risk, disruptive technology, armed conflict
  • Shifts from geopolitical to technological dominance

5. Risk Combination Analysis

  • Most frequent risk pairings
  • AI + cyber and AI + financial volatility prominence
  • Equal-weighted vs. employer-weighted comparisons

6. 2026 Economic Outlook, Survey responses on:

  • North American economic growth
  • Labor market expectations
  • Inflation outlook
  • Global growth expectations
  • Implications for financial services strategy

Report

2026 Emerging Risks Survey Results

Podcast

Suggested Citation

Bean, Michael A., and R. Dale Hall. 2026 Emerging Risk Survey Results: 19th Annual Emerging Risk Survey. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, March 2026. PDF.

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Previous Emerging Risks Surveys